![]() ![]() The following graph shows how much the p-value changes with the Number of bets, for different Average Weighted Odds of 1.5, 2 and 3 and a 5% Yield.Īs you can see, with the same Yield, the higher Average Weighted Odds, the higher number of bets are required for the same p-value. A p-value of 0.1% or lower more reasonable from my point of view. However, this result is still not an irrefutable proof of being a profitable tipster, due to the fact that there are much more than hundreds of tipsters you can find around the internet, so I would be still more exigent and… requiere a higher yield, lower odds or a higher number of bets to be sure. If you try values of the number of bets, you will find that the tipster needs 1781 bets with a yield of 5% to verify that the probability of obtaining this yield by chance is 1%. How many bets does a tipster with that stats need to verify that the probability of obtaining this yield by chance is “small”? Small is, for example, 1%. The results show that the probability is… 29.3% Almost one of every 3 tipsters could have obtained this yield just by chance. The Average Bet Size does not affect the result of the p-value, so you can let a value of 1.įor example, if a series of 100 bets at average weighted odds of 1.83 (11/6) shows an actual yield of 5%, which is the probability of obtaining this yield just by chance? (assuming that the long term yield is 0% and the payout is close to 100%, as the tipster can choose the best odds from several bookmakers, or the bookmaker margin is small). The p-value depends on the Number of Bets, the actual Yield of the series of bets, and the Average Weighted Odds. The calculation of this p-value is explained by Joseph Buchdahl in his blog articles “ Testing your betting model” and “ How good are betting tipsters?“. Which is the probability of obtaining the yield ‘Y’ if the long-term expected yield is zero? A zero yield means that there is no skill when placing the bets. The p-value calculated in the PVALUE_EMDD_BANKROLL.xlsm spreadsheet answers the question: PVALUE_EMDD_BANKROLL.xlsm (update 8/7/20) P-Value P-Value and Expected Maximum Drawdown Spreadsheet ![]() Expected Maximum Drawdown: The average drawdown of a series of bets. ![]()
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